Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.712425 3.722059 5.165878 7.458700 1.116349e+01 1.721823e+01 28.582955
2025-03-30 1.754180 2.768855 4.521807 8.033765 1.566963e+01 3.391582e+01 92.011621
2025-04-06 1.129322 1.967469 3.630730 7.637112 1.893358e+01 5.843974e+01 301.232943
2025-04-13 0.750029 1.407513 2.860608 6.936737 2.146913e+01 9.685487e+01 1233.255041
2025-04-20 0.566522 1.145806 2.577272 7.324774 2.977786e+01 2.339221e+02 24740.859922
2025-04-27 0.458604 0.998035 2.489809 8.412482 4.771182e+01 8.900165e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 0.381391 0.887772 2.445613 9.864535 8.248837e+01 6.581697e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 0.311191 0.763273 2.277651 10.694099 1.308090e+02 1.269937e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 0.245838 0.623802 1.963328 10.250609 1.688760e+02 2.636143e+07 NaN
2025-05-25 0.193620 0.502907 1.642985 9.263096 1.930519e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.165856 0.447123 1.552005 9.960034 3.226068e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.143285 0.399233 1.464075 10.623595 5.573161e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.125452 0.362576 1.415218 11.883956 1.232909e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.110014 0.328350 1.355536 13.065218 3.006631e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.093101 0.282463 1.200446 12.459048 4.798075e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.078340 0.239994 1.037784 11.267285 6.179590e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.069910 0.219321 0.990036 12.056323 1.969520e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.064415 0.208348 0.994927 14.178036 2.333567e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.059908 0.199808 1.010834 17.076022 6.325082e+08 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.054658 0.186220 0.981295 18.804492 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.048451 0.166445 0.891265 17.973076 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.042523 0.146356 0.786569 16.049304 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.039308 0.137678 0.765690 17.477503 NaN NaN NaN